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Advantagewon Oil Corp CSE:AOC

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    Shadows on The Hill


      Advantagewon With Bread and Butter


        Picked up another 29,000 shares today.




          Advantagewon Oil Corp. has signed a contract with Texas Secondary Oilfield Services for its proposed LaVernia area Q1 drilling program. Drilling should commence the week of Feb. 19, 2018, based on current rig availability.

          These wells are expected on average to add 15 barrels of oil per day per well for a total of 90 barrels of oil per day. Two wells will be drilled on each of three of the company's leases. Additional locations are being prepared to follow the initial six-well program.

          A well at the Caswell lease in the company's Saratoga area, shut in since early March, 2017, has had required downhole equipment repaired is once again producing oil. This well is expected to stabilize at five barrels of oil per day.

          About Advantagewon Oil Corp.

          Advantagewon is focused on building consistent cash flow from low-cost, low-risk oil wells in the state of Texas. Advantagewon applies specialized expertise in oil pool development by development drilling, pressure restoration and maintenance using water and chemical injection to increase oil recovery from 10 to 15 per cent to up to 75 per cent for each pool. Once the enhanced recovery strategy is successfully applied, Advantagewon will repeat the process throughout the oil pool to maximize output and minimize cost and risk.


            Crude: All in



              Let’s Look At The Big Picture For Oil

              For the Oil futures price to rise significantly, the drivers must be one or more of (i) economic (GNP growth, inflation etc), (ii) military (threat of war or actual war) or (iii) financial (forex and rising interest rates without excessive monetary contraction). These factors take time to develop and play out. The interim reports that are published weekly and monthly garner the public’s attention but lead to relatively small changes in the Oil price.

              During 2H2017 and 1Q2018, all the major drivers have been in play. It’s the narrative that is constantly changing, not the big picture. At times, the bull case may have greater merit and at times the bear case may have greater merit. At all times, vested interests are talking their book because to the public, price in the short-run is what matters.

              But the important point is that in the long run neither bull or bear narrative matters. Oil prices will trend higher or lower depending on the longer-term investment interests of the powers-that-be that control Oil and that happens to be the people who control the world’s money and the financial system of which capital markets are a part. For those of us involved in capital markets, we must appreciate theirs is a game that is playing us in the short-run and our success depends of making good decisions for the long-run.

              Every week in recent years, the Oil narrative has been focused on the EIA oil inventory report from the US government, data that is based on voluntary reporting and full of estimates. The public doesn’t question this. It should because WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is priced off hard data as measured by actual levels of the Oil in the storage tanks at Cushing, Oklahoma.

              Cushing OK is the delivery point for NYMEX Oil futures contracts. It’s where crude oil supply sources meet crude demand sources. For us investors, then, monitoring inventory levels at Cushing is therefore a very important part of understanding what’s going to happen to WTI prices.


              Genscape’s bi-weekly measurements of the oil storage tanks at Cushing, Oklahoma are the industry standard for the most important crude oil trading hub in the world. That’s because, unlike the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) data derived from voluntary reporting or accounting flows, Genscape storage measurements are based on actual tank volumes and include granularity down to the individual tank level.

              Data is collected using infrared cameras, aerial diagnostics, and other proprietary measurement techniques. This approach translates into highly accurate, advance notice of the actual oil storage levels at Cushing. Immediately following the publication of the Genscape’s Cushing oil storage numbers on Mondays and Thursdays at 10:00 AM (US Eastern time), futures and over-the-counter trading activity surges as market participants adjust their positions. In addition to offering insight into the industry’s most-watched hub two days ahead of the EIA, Genscape provides much more granular information to assess oil storage by owner or purpose.

              Cushing is not the only location that influences the crude oil balance in the U.S. Mid-Continent. Genscape also measures tank levels in Canada, at Patoka in Illinois, at St. James in Louisiana, and at four separate locations in West Texas, including the critical Midland hub. The Canadian storage is particularly interesting to traders since tank levels at Hardisty in Alberta provide a good leading indicator of what to expect at Cushing three weeks later.

              Here are the most recent Cushing Storage levels.

              Week ending
              Inventory change
              Million barrels
              Cushing Inventory
              Million barrels
              08-Nov-17 0.720 64.560
              15-Nov-17 -1.504 63.056
              22-Nov-17 -1.827 61.229
              29-Nov-17 -2.914 58.315
              06-Dec-17 -2.753 55.562
              13-Dec-17 -3.317 52.245
              20-Dec-17 0.754 52.999
              28-Dec-17 -1.584 51.415
              04-Jan-18 -2.441 48.974
              10-Jan-18 -2.395 46.579
              18-Jan-18 -4.184 42.395
              24-Jan-18 -3.150 39.245
              31-Jan-18 -2.224 37.021
              07-Feb-18 -0.711 36.310
              14-Feb-18 -3.642 32.668
              These facts – which have not been part of the narrative – show that Cushing inventory levels have been plunging for three months.

              For the week ending Nov. 8, the level was 64.56 Mbbl (million barrels of Oil), which was about 69% of storage capacity. The latest data as reported Feb. 14, for the week ending Feb. 9, the level is down by half to just 32.67 Mbbl or roughly 35% of capacity. That happens to be just about 1.5 days of US consumption.

              At no time in the past 10 years has Cushing inventory dropped so rapidly.

              Over the past 14 weeks, weekly inventory reportedly grew only one time, and that by just 0.754Mbbl, whereas the other 13 weeks averaged a drop of -2.502Mbbl per week. Unless the process is reversed, Cushing will be out of inventory in another 13 weeks.

              Let’s review the 10-year chart for WTI.

              [IMG]file:///C:%5CUsers%5CRick%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsoht mlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_image001.jpg[/IMG]

              When Cushing inventory levels were building rapidly in 2H2014, the WTI price was collapsing, plunging over -50% from ~$105 to ~$45 in just 6 months and then to ~$30 a year later. That was a full drop in price of well over -70% in 18 months.

              Over the past 3 months, however, during the time Cushing inventory has plunged by half, the price of WTI has lifted only about +33% from ~$45 to just over $60. The Bear narrative continues just as strong. Whatever the narrative, we believe the facts show that the price of WTI must continue higher or else Cushing inventory must start building rapidly to offset supply-based pricing pressure. It’s one or the other.

              By: WMA


                Oil Prices Diverge as Investors Mull U.S. Crude; Investors assessing conflicting recent U.S. data

                Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 9:06 AM ET
                By Neanda Salvaterra

                Oil prices were mixed Tuesday, as lower-than-expected inventories buoyed the U.S. crude grade while refinery maintenance in Europe weighed on oil prices in the region.

                Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 0.7% to $65.24 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange . On the New York Mercantile Exchange , West Texas Intermediate futures were trading up 0.8% at $62.19 a barrel.

                Investors are assessing conflicting U.S. data from last week about surging U.S. shale output coupled with a lower than expected build up in U.S. stocks and falling oil inventories at Cushing, Okla., which have declined by nearly 50%, according to analysts at Standard Chartered .

                Now refinery maintenance in several regions including Europe is putting a damper demand for crude causing a divergence of the crude grades.

                "You still have those low stocks in Cushing supporting WTI on the other hand you have stock builds in the U.S. Gulf," said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix, an oil research firm in Switzerland. "There are also some signs of physical pressure in the crude oil market in Europe, partly due to lower crude oil demand due to refinery maintenance."

                Still, oil found support last week after resource-rich Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its partnership with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and external producers such as Russia in their efforts to eliminate about 2% of global supply.

                Crude prices closed at a one-week high Friday, after having fallen by more than 12% in the first weeks of February, weighed down by concerns of surging U.S. output eclipsing demand as forecast by the International Energy Agency .

                OPEC and other analysts have issued differing views from the IEA. Some analysts say that shale may not be enough to meet future demand.

                "We are closer to OPEC 's numbers," said Paul Horsnell, the head of commodity research at Standard Chartered . "We do see demand exceeding 1.6 million barrels a day for 2018 and we see non-OPEC supply outside North America falling both this year and the next year."

                The American Petroleum Institute issues its forecast on the U.S. crude inventory on Wednesday.

                Among refined products, Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock—the benchmark gasoline contract—was up by 0.46%, at $1.76 a gallon. ICE gas oil, a benchmark for diesel fuel, changed hands at $573.50 a metric ton, down 0.82% from the previous settlement.



                  Advantagewon Oil Corp. has received the first three drilling permits for its upcoming program.

                  With the receipt of these permits, site preparation for the first three of the proposed six wells included in the company's proposed Q1 2018 LaVernia field drilling program is underway. Details of the LaVernia field drilling program were previously announced, via press release on Jan. 22, 2018, and can be viewed by visiting the company's press release archive.

                  The contracted drilling rig is scheduled to arrive Feb. 27, 2018, weather permitting. The company expects to have drilling permits in place and sites prepared for the remainder of the Q1 drilling program to facilitate continuous operations through to program completion.

                  As previously stated in the company's Jan. 22, 2018, press release, once drilling and equipping of the six wells is completed, the wells are expected, on average, to add 15 barrels of oil per day, per well, for a total of 90 barrels of oil per day.

                  About Advantagewon Oil Corp.

                  Advantagewon is focused on building consistent cash flow from low-cost, low-risk oil wells in the State of Texas. Advantagewon applies specialized expertise in oil pool development by development drilling, pressure restoration and maintenance using water and chemical injection to increase oil recovery from 10 to 15 per cent to up to 75 per cent for each pool. Once the enhanced recovery strategy is successfully applied, Advantagewon will repeat the process throughout the oil pool to maximize output and minimize cost and risk.


                    Picked up 50,000 more in this morn's fire sale.



                      Energy demand steps back in play



                        Ahead of the Herd Newsletter - 2018 Issue Seven


                          Nothing has changed, except to maybe get worse. Three steps forward four back for Canada's energy sector.


                          THE KIMON SAGA




                            Advantagewon Oil Corp. has sites prepared to commence its previously announced Q1 2018 drilling program.

                            The contracted drilling rig was scheduled to arrive on Feb. 27, 2018; however, recent rain has resulted in very soft ground conditions, preventing movement of heavy equipment. The drilling rig is standing by, waiting on suitable ground conditions, and will mobilize onto the prepared drilling sites as soon as possible.

                            About Advantagewon Oil Corp.

                            Advantagewon is focused on building consistent cash flow from low-cost, low-risk oil wells in the state of Texas.


                              Advantagewon Oil poised to drill six fresh holes



                                Well, it certainly looks like we’re on to something with the ‘shale is over-hyped theme.’

                                Start drilling, get oil flowing, lock up 10,000 and more acres of cheap to drill ‘Bread & Butter’ conventional wells.

                                There is THE plan to build a real oil business, it’s right there for the taking.

                                Glad to be on board for the ride!


                                Shale Trailblazer Turns Skeptic on Soaring U.S. Oil Production; Former EOG CEO questions growth forecasts, says U.S. oil isn't 'big bad wolf' disrupting energy markets

                                Monday, March 05, 2018, 8:46 AM ET
                                By Bradley Olson

                                HOUSTON—One of the pioneers of the U.S. shale boom plans to deliver a surprising message at a major energy conference here this week: U.S. oil production won't keep growing as fast as the market seems to think.

                                Mark Papa, the former chief executive of industry bellwether EOG Resources Inc., said in an interview he is eager to tell the assemblage of oil chieftains that a widely held view that shale oil producers can quickly ramp up production, and sustain those levels if needed, is wrong.

                                "The oil market is in a state of misdirection now," said Mr. Papa, 71 years old, currently head of smaller shale company Centennial Resource Development Inc ., suggesting future supplies may be more constrained than experts believe . "Someone needs to speak out."

                                Mr. Papa is among a group of shale executives set to meet for a private dinner Monday evening with Mohammad Barkindo , the secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has been constricting its oil output along with Russia to reduce an oversupply of crude that Americans helped create. Mr. Papa is then scheduled to speak publicly Tuesday at CERAWeek, the annual energy confab put on by IHS Markit Ltd .

                                An engineer by trade, Mr. Papa speaks in kindly tones but often delivers a blunt message. While he stops short of saying the industry is headed for trouble, his main point is that shale isn't the "big bad wolf," or all-powerful disrupter of oil and gas markets, that it has been made out to be. He strongly takes issue with the notion—held by market analysts, executives and investors—that U.S. production will long swamp global supplies, perpetuating lower prices.

                                The latest example of that thinking came on Monday when the International Energy Agency forecast in a report that the U.S. will overtake Russia to become the world's largest oil producer by 2023, and projected that the U.S. will account for 60% of the new barrels of oil pumped between now and that time.

                                In a January speech, Mr. Papa told executives and investors that most of the best drilling locations in North Dakota and South Texas have already been tapped. He has lately called out rivals for being too optimistic about their prospects. And he points to recent operational challenges such as sand shortages that companies have disclosed in the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, the hottest U.S. drilling region, as a harbinger.

                                Such constraints, coupled with mounting investor demands for returns, will equate to much slower U.S. oil production growth than what most forecasts expect, he said.

                                Some of Mr. Papa's broadsides are laced with sarcasm, including his skeptical take on the industry's trend of the moment, the push to use "big data" and automation to modernize oil fields and drilling.

                                "Apparently, you can just use your imagination to dream what might happen with big data in five or 10 years," he said, smirking.

                                Privately, some executives chafe at Mr. Papa's critiques, saying his commentary is self-serving, since Centennial already holds the rights to prime drilling land in Texas. Started with little more than Mr. Papa's reputation, the Permian-focused company went public in 2016 and is now worth about $5 billion. If the market were to adopt Mr. Papa's view that shale growth will be limited, it could push up oil prices and benefit his business. Mr. Papa said he is motivated by a desire to warn the industry, not any potential personal benefit.

                                But Mr. Papa hasn't been alone in disputing forecasts for spectacular growth in U.S. oil production, which surpassed 10 million barrels a day and broke a 47-year-old record in November, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration . Continental Resources Inc. Chief Executive Harold Hamm, another shale pioneer, also has questioned the forecasts.

                                More than a dozen U.S. producers either set lower targets for 2018 production than analysts expected or said they would have to spend more than anticipated to reach previous output goals.

                                Shares in an index of U.S. oil companies have fallen 8% this year even as U.S. oil prices have risen 1.4%, while the S&P 500 index has gained roughly 0.7%, an indication that investors lack confidence in their ability to capitalize on higher crude prices.

                                While some geologists and industry gadflies have incorrectly predicted the demise of shale for years, Mr. Papa's credentials make his criticism harder for industry optimists to discount.

                                "He has a reputation for challenging conventional wisdom and fostering innovation by creating a culture where people could ask uncomfortable questions," said Les Csorba, who advises energy company boards as a partner at executive search firm Heidrick & Struggles International Inc .

                                Mr. Papa said he developed a healthy skepticism after his experience at EOG. As he saw more companies perfect the art of extracting natural gas from shale, he came to worry that the market would tip into oversupply.

                                Engineers doubted the drilling techniques would work for oil extraction, believing larger oil molecules wouldn't flow as easily through fractured shale as natural gas. But EOG thought otherwise and announced its intention to pivot to oil .

                                EOG proved to be correct as gas prices cratered , and producing oil from shale became more economically viable. Mr. Papa believes he is right again this time and shrugs off critics.

                                "Even though 99% of the industry is dead certain about certain things, 99% of the industry is often wrong," he said. "I have a minority opinion right now, but within the next year or two, I feel pretty strongly that it's going to be proven out."